Not one, not two, welcome to ‘three-state’ solution!

Gaza Strip - Friday: one day after Hamas seized control there after more than 100 (other reports say over 200) people were killed, many of them execution style (by Fatah and Hamas), and it's not over yet. The green flag of Hamas flies over government buildings in Gaza now, at least in front of those that are still standing.

Once there was a "debate" (no real negotiations) about two states, Palestinian state and Israel. Today, there are "debates" about three of them.

Not defending Hamas, but all reports point to its militia to have violently seized control of Gaza as if Fatah militia (Dahlan's to be in particular) is angles and clean handed. No one wants to believe the fact that all what is going there was well planned by Israel, Americans, corrupted Palestinian Authority and executed by Dahlan's militia.

Ten days ago, Dennis Ross, former U.S. Mideast envoy, described exactly what is happening on ground today. He said:

Counter Islamists gains in Gaza
By Dennis Ross

In several days of discussions in Jerusalem and Ramallah recently, I was struck by the nature of the debate I witnessed in both places.

To my surprise, it wasn't about the stalemate in the peace process or the Arab peace initiative. It was about the conflict between Palestinian organizations in Gaza -- Hamas vs. Fatah -- and whether Gaza was in fact already lost to the Islamists. Both Israelis and Palestinians were wondering about the consequences of Gaza's becoming, in their word, "Hamastan."

Not all felt Gaza was lost. Some said Israel should let weapons and ammunition get to Fatah forces in Gaza to battle Hamas. I also heard from Palestinians and Israelis alike that Egypt could do much more to prevent Hamas from receiving smuggled arms and money through the Sinai tunnels running into Gaza.

But for every Palestinian and Israeli who argued for arming Fatah, I heard a contrary point of view that at this point it might not make any difference. The consensus was that Hamas had made a deliberate calculation to attack all key security positions held by Fatah in Gaza and that the Fatah forces now had few, if any, senior commanders still in that area.

All those I spoke with were worried about the consequences of Gaza's becoming an Islamist enclave. They saw it offering inspiration to other Islamists throughout the Middle East and providing a new haven for Islamists of all stripes. They feared it would spell the end of even the possibility of a two-state solution. Most were convinced Hamas would never accept peace with Israel.

Interestingly, there was consensus among Israelis and Palestinians on the dangers of Gaza's becoming a failed state. No one thought it would be easy to isolate and contain -- or had any clear ideas on how to respond to such a development. Israelis voiced no desire to go back into a densely populated place where nearly everyone has weapons and Israel would face, as one person told me, "our own Baghdad." But few Israelis felt they could tolerate continued rocket fire out of Gaza.

Their conclusion: If Egypt does not act more decisively, Israel may have to occupy the area near the Egyptian border to stop the smuggling of larger and more effective weapons.

As for Palestinians, the most striking conclusion was that it was essential that Hamas not succeed in the West Bank the way it is succeeding in Gaza. Fear is a great motivator, perhaps enough to overcome the personal rivalries that have hobbled Fatah in its competition with Hamas. I certainly found a new readiness among the young guard of Fatah (and the activists who represent Fatah's third and fourth generations) to organize themselves at the grass roots and rebrand Fatah. They know they lost the elections because of their divisions, the corruption of the old guard and their inability to respond to the needs of the Palestinian public. I saw a new awareness that Fatah must offer services and programs, not just words, if it is to preserve its hold on the West Bank.

Among some I heard an interesting proposal: Let's make the West Bank work -- socially, economically and institutionally -- then hold up our model of success in contrast to the failure of Gaza, where functional unemployment is close to 70 percent. Let Hamas preside over a dysfunctional, lawless state. We will build our own. Let's create understandings with Jordan and Israel for at least economic confederation and security. And if Hamas still hangs on in Gaza, perhaps there can be a "three-state solution."

Sounds good in theory, but I doubt it would work. No matter how sensible confederation between the Palestinian state and Jordan might be, at least economically, a failed state in Gaza would be a constant source of instability. Israel wouldn't find it easy to occupy just a narrow strip of territory to stop smuggling. The Israeli presence would invite an insurgency much like the one Israel faced in southern Lebanon. No alternative international force is likely to be vigilant or serious enough to do an effective job -- just look at Lebanon.

Moreover, while West Bank and Gaza Palestinians have much that divides them, they still have a common identity as Palestinians; the creation of a Palestinian state without Gaza would be an endless source of grievance and irredentism.

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So what is to be done? If a failed state in Gaza is not acceptable, more has to be done now to prevent it. Egypt, while it has made commitments to stop the smuggling, does not see the situation as a national security threat. We will need to put a spotlight on this to change the Egyptian calculus and, at a minimum, to move Egypt to stop Hamas from accumulating more weaponry and money. If Fatah does have a plan for bolstering its forces in Gaza, it is worth supporting it by coordinating with the Israelis and Egyptians -- not to produce a bloodbath in Gaza but to deter Hamas from seeking to impose itself there.

The logic of having donors (public and private) working with Fatah where it seeks to rebrand itself makes sense for the West Bank and Gaza. What Hamas has done in Gaza has provided a wake-up call for Fatah and Palestinian independents. They now know they have to compete socially, economically and politically. They need help to do so. It is time we, the other donors and the Saudis and the Gulf states woke up to the reality that if we don't help remake Fatah, we may face a future in which Islamists control the Palestinian issue and neither a two-state nor a three-state solution will be in the cards.

Now what? Is this anyone's idea of how things would turn out in the yet-to-be-born Palestinian state?

After three days of a vicious war between Hamas and Fatah in Gaza strip, they both killed scores of Palestinians. They terrorized their own people, and they made a questionable future even more uncertain. When Hamas gunmen took over the Gaza headquarters of Fatah and emptied file cabinets into the street.

What came out flying of the Israeli, US and corrupt Palestinian Authority (PA) windows were the laid plans of politicians and pundits for a future Palestinian state.

The much-touted two-state solution -- one Israel and one Palestine, living side by side in peace -- now Israel and corrupt PA made looks like a relic of simpler times. Now we are forced to believe by the censored media and our corrupt PA to have two-state dissolution: two Palestinian entities, Gaza and the West Bank, each ruled by different governments with sharply different ideologies. But even if Abbas says he has dissolved the Hamas-led government, the two sides' differences will not easily disappear. So now what? A three-state solution? How can this crisis be solved?

As people in Gaza begin to clean up after the coup, back in the West Bank, President Mahmoud Abbas has dissolved the coalition government set up with Hamas and appears in control of West Bank as planned.

Talking about a three-state solution would work very well for Israel. With Fatah and the corrupted PA located in the West Bank, Hamas in Gaza, it now makes Israel's job much easier to take out Hamas in Gaza. Soon, Israel will continue its invasion in Gaza, led by new elected leader of Labor Party, Barak, as the Israeli "defense" mister; and then turn back to Fatah in West Bank and voilà...Israel wins.

That probably will happen, though. Most likely, Hamas will continue to tighten its grip and further indoctrinate/pervert the minds of people, so will Fatah in West Bank, leading to a slow and steady buildup with the grand finale involving Israel in an epic showdown. Hopefully someone can intervene before it is too late once again.

These are dark days for Palestinians: Hamas in Gaza ghetto, Fatah in West Bank ghetto and Israel occupying both, the vast majority of their victims are Palestinians and Palestine future.