LAST August I predicted that as the US election drew closer, and as the President’s re-election became certain, a credible scenario would be for Israel to strike Iran – pre-empting Barack Obama’s new term in the White House.
From his speech it seems an Israeli strike is now less likely. Not only because Obama’s re-election next Tuesday is becoming less certain, but because Netanyahu was a victim of his own vain, swaggering arrogance.
Politicians tend to get intoxicated in private room meetings, losing their inhibitions when articulating, off the record, their candid opinions.
In a 2001 closed room meeting, unbeknown to him, Netanyahu was caught on video bragging to an Israeli settler’s family about how easily he could manipulate the US. “I know what America is… America is a thing you can move very easily,” he said.
He also boasted on his plans to sabotage the Oslo Peace Accord with Palestinians. “I’m going to interpret the accords in such a way that would allow me to put an end to this galloping forward to the ’67 borders,” he said.
Video link: http://youtu.be/Cl60X_jOsR0
But on Iran, ex-furniture salesman Netanyahu was blinded by his condescending view of American democracy – failing to appreciate the role the US military might play.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is undeniably one of the strongest lobbying groups in Washington, DC and arguably the undisputed foreign lobby leader in the US capital, but it is no match for the US military’s influence.
Pre-empting Netanyahu, AIPAC and Israeli firsters from both parties, Obama mobilised his military and sent the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, to Tel Aviv in late January to reiterate the President’s demand that Israel refrain from any unilateral military move without giving prior notice to Washington.
In a characteristic salesman’s bluff, Netanyahu responded by cancelling the largest ever US-Israel war exercise scheduled to take place in April. The Prime Minister wanted to send an indirect message to the Obama administration that a possible unilateral strike could take place in the spring.
The US military was unmoved by Israel’s tactics and continued to verbalise its opposition to war. The American military’s public position neutralised Israeli supporters and war advocates in both houses.
The Israeli lobby’s inability to pressure the US military meant a back-pedaling Netanyahu surrogate told Ynet news on August 11 that Israel was willing to “reconsider” a unilateral attack if Obama set an ultimatum for Iran to stop uranium enrichment.
Refusing to back down, the US military went on the offensive. General Dempsey was quoted in the UK’s Guardian newspaper on August 30 saying that an Israeli strike would only succeed in unraveling “crippling international sanctions” against the Iranian government.
He went further by making a statement no US politician would dare to utter: “I don’t want to be complicit if they [Israel] choose to do it.”
Only American military leaders are invulnerable to political intimidation from Israeli firsters and lobbyists. Unlike the myopic view of elected officials, military leaders understand the cost of war and the limitation of its own might in what could be a very costly, protracted conflict.
Next Wednesday America will wake up to the start of a new presidential term at the White House. To the chagrin of Israeli leaders, the US military might have derailed, for now, another world disaster.