By Uri Avnery* | Sabbah Report | www.sabbah.biz

The fourth largest powerful military.

It goes like this: The US will turn its back on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The entire world will follow. Everybody is fed up with this conflict. Let the Israelis and the Palestinians sort out their problems by themselves.

Sounds sensible. Why must the world be bothered with these two unruly children? Let them kick each other as much as they like. The adults should not interfere.

But in reality this is an outrageous suggestion. Because these two children are not of equal strength. When an adult sees a 14-year old mercilessly mistreating a 6-year old, can he just look on?

Israel is materially a hundredfold, indeed a thousandfold, stronger than the Palestinians. The fourth strongest army in the world (by its own estimate) dominates the life of a helpless people. The Israeli economy, with some of the most advanced technologies in the world, dominates a people whose resources are next to nil. A 42-year old occupation dominates every single corner of occupied Palestine.

This did not come about by a miracle. The huge gap between the strength of the two peoples has also been created by the support of the US for Israel. Israel would not be where it is today without this political, economic and military underpinning. Billions of dollars in annual aid, access to the most advanced weaponry in the world, the political immunity assured by the US veto in the Security Council and all the other forms of assistance have helped successive Israeli governments to maintain and intensify the occupation.

Friedman does not propose ending this support, which itself is a massive intervention in this conflict, and is given to the stronger side. When he suggests that the US withdraw from the conflict, he is actually saying: let the Israeli government do what it is doing – continue the occupation, set up new settlements, withdraw the land from under the feet of the Palestinian people, go on with the murderous blockade that denies the 1.5 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip – men, women and children –almost all the necessities of life.

This is a monstrous suggestion.

True, the prophet Isaiah (11:6) describes a situation where the wolf shall dwell with the lamb. (Israeli humor comments: No problem, provided a new lamb is brought in every day.) Now the prophet Thomas proposes to let the wolf and the lamb sort out their relationship between themselves.

Binyamin Netanyahu could not wish for more in his wildest dreams. In the meantime he is satisfied with something less: President Obama's acceptance of his latest trick.

And thus Netanyahu confronted the nation with a tortured face and told us about his inhumanly difficult decision: to suspend the building activities in the settlements.

The entire world applauded. How wonderful of Netanyahu to sacrifice his most sacred principles on the altar of peace. He has taken a stupendous step. Now it's up to the Palestinians in their turn to respond with a grand gesture.

But something is wrong in this picture and needs explaining.

To return to the great Sherlock Holmes, who spoke about the curious incident of the dog in the night-time: "But the dog did nothing in the night-time!" he was told. "That was the curious incident," the detective answered.

It could have been assumed that after such a dramatic announcement by the Likud leader, the settlers would let out a deafening roar. Riots in the streets of all the towns. Blocking of all roads in the occupied territories. A rebellion of the settlers in the cabinet and the Knesset.

But the dog did not bark. Not even a growl, just a token yelp. Culture Minister Limor Livnat opened her big mouth and declared that the Obama administration was "terrible". That's more or less all. The settler-minister Avigdor Lieberman even voted for the decision in the cabinet, and so did the ultra-extreme Likud minister Benny Begin, son of the late Prime Minister.

Begin even explained his curious behavior on TV: he had no reason to vote against. After all, it was only a gesture to appease Obama. It has no real content. Building "public structures" will go on (about 300 new ones were approved just this week). Building will be continued in housing projects whose foundations have already been laid (at least 3000 apartments in the West Bank). And, most importantly: there will be absolutely no limitation to Jewish building activity in East Jerusalem, where building continues frantically in half a dozen locations in the heart of the Arab part of the city. And, besides, the suspension will last only for 10 months. Then, Begin promised, construction will be resumed in full swing.

That would not have appeased the settlers, if they did not know what every Israeli knows: that it is all phony. Building will continue everywhere, with the officials cooperating on the quiet and the army closing its eyes. It will be claimed that building permits had already been issued, that the foundations had already been laid. (In many places extra foundations have indeed been laid, just in case.) That's the way it was in the past, under the governments of Labor and Kadima, and that's the way it will continue now. This week it became known that in the whole of the West Bank, just 14 (fourteen!) government inspectors are supervising all building activity.

In the same TV program, Yossi Beilin was sitting next to Begin. It might have been expected that he at least would expose the fraud, but no. Beilin lauded Netanyahu for his brave act and saw in it a promising new beginning. This way he rendered important assistance in winning over world public opinion and setting the mind of Israeli innocents at rest. It would be difficult to imagine a sadder example of the collapse of the "Zionist Left". The Geneva Initiative has turned into the Jerusalem Deception.

The largest opposition party, too, joined the chorus. Tzipi Livni, who bears the impressive official title of "Leader of the Opposition", mumbled something unintelligible and went back to sleep.

And Obama? He capitulated again. After giving up his original demand for a total freeze of building in the settlements, he had no choice but to give in again. He reacted to Netanyahu's shabby performance as if it were high drama.

Obama is in need of an achievement. It is being said that he has not achieved a single objective in the international arena. So here is an achievement. Netanyahu is freezing – sorry, restraining – sorry, suspending - settlement activity.

My father taught me in my youth that one must never give in to a blackmailer. After giving in once, one is condemned to giving in again and again, while the demands of the blackmailer grow and grow. After giving in to the pro-Israel lobby once, Obama will have to give in again and again.

One could almost pity him and his assistants. Such an impressive, such a tough, such an experienced group – and they are returning from Jerusalem like Napoleon's army from Moscow.

We saw poor George Mitchell. The man who brokered peace between the factions in Ireland came to Jerusalem. Came again and again and again. Came as the representative of the world's one remaining superpower to tell Israelis and Palestinians what they have to do. He was tough. He dictated terms.

Israeli officials laughed at him behind his back. They are used to the likes of him. They have eaten them for breakfast. Remember William Rogers, Nixon's Secretary of State and his peace plan? And the great Henry Kissinger? And even James Baker, who tried to impose economic sanctions on us? And Bill Clinton's "Guidelines"? And the "vision" of George Bush? The political graveyard is full of American politicians who tried to impose limits on Israel, without being able or willing to use the necessary force. Welcome, George. Nice to see you, Hillary.

What is so pathetic is that Netanyahu is not even deceiving Obama. The American president knows full well that this is all play acting. He is very intelligent. He is not very courageous. For the mess of pottage of a pretended achievement he has sold his political birthright. Even George Bush managed to extract from Ariel Sharon an undertaking to dismantle all settlements set up after March 2001 (needless to say, not a single one was dismantled).

This is a great victory for Netanyahu, his second over Obama. Not yet the decisive victory, but a victory that bodes ill for the chances of peace in the near future.

Netanyahu did not even try to deceive the Palestinians either. He knew that this is impossible.

Every Palestinian understands Netanyahu's announcement only too well. He has only to look out of his window to see what is happening. After all, Israel would not invest billions in new building if it had any intention of dismantling the settlements for peace within a year or two.

There is hardly a place in the West Bank where one cannot see a settlement on a hilltop, near or far. In some places, one can see two or three. If one approaches closer, one can see the building activity in full swing, the overt and the covert, the "legal" and the "illegal".

And, most importantly: there is no Palestinian leader who could possibly agree to the continued building in East Jerusalem. The construction of Jewish housing projects goes on while Palestinian homes are being destroyed, "archeological" digs continue as well as all the other activities designed to "judaize" Jerusalem. To put it more bluntly: making Jerusalem "Arab-free".

When Obama capitulates to Netanyahu, there is nothing Mahmoud Abbas can do. When the Americans demand that the Palestinians answer Netanyahu's "important" step with an important step of their own, it is nothing but a sad joke. The Americans help Netanyahu to put the ball into the Palestinian court, and with a pious rolling of their eyes ask why, after such a momentous Israeli gesture, the Palestinian do not agree to resuming the "peace process".

But Abbas cannot start negotiations without a total freeze of the settlements, especially in Jerusalem. The only dialog between Israelis and Palestinians that is taking place now is with Hamas. The prisoner exchange deal is nearing the point of decision. The main remaining bone of contention is the freeing of the Fatah leader, Marwan Barghouti, who was sentenced to five life terms.

If the deal is clinched and Barghouti freed, it will be another humiliation for Abbas: it will be said that Hamas, not he, has achieved the liberation of the Fatah leader. The freed Barghouti will act to mend the split between Fatah and Hamas and will be a credible candidate for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority. Then, a new chapter of the conflict will begin.

It is worth reading the full text of Isaiah's prophecy: "The wolf also shall dwell with the lamb, and the leopard shall lie down with the kid, and the calf and the young lion and the fatling together, and a little child shall lead them."

The role of the little child, so it seems, falls to Obama. If he accepts, God forbid, Friedman's advice and leaves the picture, the vision will turn into a nightmare. The Israeli government will increase the oppression, the Palestinians will turn to unbridled terrorism, the entire world will be dragged into bloody chaos.

Some advice.

* Uri Avnery is an Israeli journalist, writer and peace activist. Author of 1948: A Soldier's Tale - The Bloody Road to Jerusalem.

Cartoon by Carlos Latuff

By Akiva Eldar

America's best Jewish minds are wracking their brains, trying to find a magic formula that will put the settlements close to the hearts of Israel's supporters, not to mention its critics. A new guide to the perplexed, disseminated by the leadership of the Israel Project, the organization spearheading Israel's public relations efforts in the United States, offers a glimpse into its very own internal confusion.

The informative document recommends discontinuing the usage of three traditional arguments, frequently used by Israeli and Jewish advocates in conversations with journalists and public opinion shapers: It cautions against religious arguments based on quotes from the Bible, which even put off a Jewish audience; it warns that the argument that the land of the settlements "belongs" (the quotation marks were used in the original) to Israel is unconvincing because, officially, Israel itself defines the territories as "disputed" (and not occupied); and explains that the argument that the Arabs use the settlements to their own advantage fails to justify Israel's policy.

The Israel Project's leadership recognizes that public opinion, even among Israel supporters, is ambiguous about the settlements. Despairing Israel advocates still embrace the delusional security argument, from which even retired general Moshe Ya'alon has distanced himself: They argue that the settlements are necessary for Israel's security and suggest telling audiences that the settlements were not created randomly. They were put on mountaintops and in militarily sensitive areas to create a security buffer between Israel and its Arab neighbors (Jordan?). If that does not do the job, remind the audience that the settlements constitute an effective early warning system (does this include their well-baby clinics?). And if that is still not enough, point to the Qassams as convincing proof of what happens when Israel evacuates settlements (kindergarten children in Gush Katif protected their friends in Sderot, or was it the soldiers who protected them?).

But the joker is undoubtedly the term "ethnic cleansing." A weak defense calls for an offensive. The guide for Israel warmly recommends that advocates complain bitterly about the idea that a given area will be cleared of Jews (did someone say Judenrein?). Why can Israel accommodate and even grant equal rights to its Arab minority (the Or Report is just a rumor?), whereas the Palestinian territories must be cleansed of Jews? Unfortunately, the guide does not suggest a response to anyone who heard and/or read the opinions of Palestinian Prime Minister Salaam Fayad, or of Ahmed Qureia, the head of the negotiating team, who invited the residents of Ariel and Ma'aleh Adumim to remain in their homes and live in peace and equality as a Jewish minority in Palestine. Qureia even said he broached this subject with former U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice.

Too bad none of the prime minister's many advisers directed his attention to this generous Palestinian offer. Had he been aware, he might have refrained from making cheap usage of the ethnic cleansing argument in a conversation he had last week with Germany's foreign minister, Frank Walter Steinmeier.

Many American Jews will not heed the Israel Project's many suggestions. The leadership of the Reform community in the U.S. and Canada, which encompasses more than one million Jews, decided last month to adopt U.S. President Barack Obama's call for an end to construction in the settlements and for an immediate dismantling of the outposts. An official announcement released by the Reform community's leadership voiced concern over Israel's failure to meet its obligations in this regard. They are even demanding that the government take firm action against fringe settler groups that resort to violence against Palestinians.

The roads less traveled

Apropos natural growth, it will be interesting to see how Benjamin Netanyahu will explain to Obama section five of the plan for road improvement, part of the Transportation Ministry's new budget book: "Upgrading Highway 1 between Mishor Adumim and the Good Samaritan Inn and between the Zeitim Interchange and the Coca Cola Interchange [at the foot of French Hill in East Jerusalem], at a cost of NIS 280 million."

Let's leave aside for now the question of why the government is investing over a quarter of a million shekels in relatively lightly traveled roads that do not extend beyond seven kilometers when, at present, there is no time to expand the most accident-prone roads, like the Beit Shemesh highway, where six more people lost their lives over the weekend. How, then, can Israel explain its decision to establish new facts on the ground in the heart of the territories whose future it actually agreed to discuss?

Who will believe that Israel came to the negotiation table with clean hands at a time when it is putting its paws on yet another chunk of land? Some will surely claim that it's all linked to safety reasons and that we sometimes even allow the Palestinians to use these roads. In a previous instance, the Migron-Adam deal, it turned out that business is proceeding as usual in the settlements - and not just while there were ongoing negotiations for an arrangement with the Palestinians, but at the very height of talks with the United States over natural growth. Washington was furious. Maariv's report of erstwhile American consent to completing the construction of 2,500 apartments in the settlements only added fuel to the fire.

A retired hero

European diplomats are wondering what happened to Javier Solana, the European Union's foreign policy chief. Throughout his many long years in this post, the Spanish statesman always carefully maintained a low profile with respect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Here a relaxed meeting with Ariel Sharon at the height of Operation Defensive Shield, there a courtesy visit with Ehud Olmert toward the end of Operation Cast Lead. Even when his legs were in the East, his heart was far away in the West, in the White House and in the U.S. State Department.

During president George W. Bush's eight years in office, Solana transformed the European Union into a ward of the Americans with regard to anything related to the Mideast conflict. It is unclear what suddenly prompted him to take the initiative and suggest that the UN set a target date for the creation of a Palestinian state, even without Israel's consent. Perhaps it is the new spirit emanating from the White House, or perhaps it is his impending retirement - maybe both.